Today, Zheng cotton main continued last week’s decline, hitting a minimum of 13,530 yuan/ton, a new low in three months. New cotton processing continues to be at a high level, and has now exceeded 5.2 million tons, while the downstream pre-replenment is expected to fall, superimposed tariffs after Trump came to power after the combined effect of the concern, to maintain more than a month of cotton gin price support and the upper hedging pressure brought about by 13800-14200 yuan/ton weak balance interval was broken, Zheng cotton showed a downward trend. On the macro side, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned the implementation of more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, but it still takes time for the policy to be effective, short-term macro support weakened after the meeting, most of the securities and futures markets fell slightly today, and Zheng Mian also fell again. With the continued fermentation of negative fundamentals and the weakening of macro support, Zheng cotton or will continue to test the low support before the downward test.

Looking forward to the future market, macro-economic data in November was gradually released, the overall steady recovery, industrial added value remained high, total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3%, the China International Economic Exchange Center and other financial experts believe that the annual economic growth of 5% growth target is expected to be successfully completed in 2025, domestic demand or show a slow recovery trend. In terms of demand, the recent lack of market confidence, weak transactions, cotton yarn more price sales, grey cloth boot is still showing a declining trend, textile enterprises replenishment is more cautious, most of the current hanging orders in the 13200-13300 yuan/ton near the former low, there is still a certain annual replenishment demand. In terms of inventory, although new cotton production has reached a new high, due to the lack of supply of cotton reserves last year and the low amount of sliding tax quotas, short-term mainland inventories are still at a low level, and the actual impact on the supply side is lower than expected, so there will still be strong support near the former low. Follow-up attention should be paid to the path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in 2025 and the policy direction of President-elect Donald Trump, as well as the domestic macro and demand side of the improvement.