According to customs statistics, as of June, 2023/24 (2023.9-2024.6) China’s cumulative import of cotton nearly 2.9 million tons, an increase of more than 155%; Among them, from January to April 2024, China imported 1,798,700 tons of cotton, an increase of 213.1%. Some agencies, international cotton traders judge that the actual amount of cotton in China this year or reach 3.15-3.2 million tons, significantly higher than the USDA monthly report forecast of 3.092 million tons, 2023/24 China’s cotton imports exceed the expectations of most cotton-related enterprises and institutions.

For the cotton import situation in July and August, the industry analysis believes that:

First, will the regulatory policy of additional sliding tariff cotton import quotas be introduced in 2024? From the current point of view, cotton textile enterprises in July/August to use the sliding tax quota signed import bonded cotton, spot cotton has little hope, but after the sliding tax quota issue “boots landing”, cotton enterprises, traders can rest assured, bold digestion of 1% tariff quota, stimulate foreign cotton imports.

Second, the new export orders of domestic cotton textile enterprises in May to July are less than expected, and traceability orders are also stricter with the implementation of the United States/EU Xinjiang cotton import ban, coupled with Mexico/Indonesia and other tariffs on imported goods, resulting in a variable export market, so cotton enterprises, traders on July/August cotton inquiry, procurement enthusiasm is very low.

Third, in the past three months, China’s cotton imports have fallen sharply, and it is difficult to reverse the decline in the short term. According to statistics, from April to June 2024, China’s cotton imports fell 13.88%, 23.90%, 38.5% respectively, not only “three consecutive drops”, but the decline is getting larger and larger, so if the tariff quota is issued from late July to mid-August, there is still no news, cotton imports are only falling or not rising.