With the 2024/25 cotton harvest in China and the United States, the two major cotton producing regions in the Northern Hemisphere, coming to an end, coupled with the 2023/24 cotton processing in Australia and Brazil, the global cotton production and supply pattern of this year is gradually clear, and the focus of attention of institutions, international cotton merchants and speculative enterprises has shifted to the global cotton consumption situation in 2020/25. In order to make an accurate judgment on the long-term trend of ICE cotton futures.

Although the USDA’s August to November report respectively lowered the 2024/25 global cotton consumption of 217,700 tons, 100,000 tons, 2,000 tons, 112,100 tons, of which the November report forecast global cotton consumption of 2.5087 million tons, still an increase of 523,000 tons over the previous year’s consumption forecast, some cotton-related enterprises and institutions judge, USDA’s later report is likely to continue to lower the 2024/25 global cotton consumption forecast data, does not rule out a drop to the previous year’s level (24.564 million tons).

On the one hand, with Trump entering the White House again on January 20, 2025, the tariffs on imported goods from China, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Turkey and other countries are almost “boarded up”, and the supply chain/traders of cotton textiles and clothing will be relatively large impact. The uncertainty of cotton consumption growth is greatly increased (at least the price of textile clothing in the United States is rising due to the increase in tariffs, and the downgrade of consumption is inevitable); On the other hand, with the formation of a strong trend of the US dollar, the Federal Reserve may be forced to change the current monetary policy stance, suspend interest rate cuts or even restart interest rate hikes, which is not conducive to global cotton consumption. The Trump trade triggered a “wild surge” in the dollar, and even broke through the important level of 107 on November 14, and the market’s biggest concern is whether the dollar index will challenge the high of 114.79 set in September 2022 before Trump’s inauguration. Against the backdrop of slowing global economic growth and rising geopolitical risks, the impact of a stronger dollar on emerging market countries is likely to be further exacerbated. Cotton textile clothing production and marketing, trade, circulation will also suffer.