China Cotton network news: The United States cotton industry well-known media “Cotton farmers Magazine” survey in mid-December 2023 showed that the United States cotton planting area in 2024 is expected to be 10.19 million acres, compared with the United States Department of Agriculture in October 2023, the actual planted area forecast reduced by about 42,000 acres, a decrease of 0.5%, and there is no significant change compared with last year.

Review of US cotton production in 2023

A year ago, U.S. cotton farmers were optimistic about production prospects, cotton prices were acceptable, and the soil moisture before planting was relatively sufficient, and most cotton-producing regions were expected to start the planting season well. However, excessive rainfall in California and Texas caused flooding, some cotton fields were converted to other crops, and the extreme heat of the summer caused a significant decline in cotton yields, particularly in the Southwest, which remains in the grip of the worst drought on record in 2022. The USDA’s October estimate of 10.23 million acres for 2023 shows how much weather and other market factors have impacted the initial forecast of 11-11.5 million acres.

Investigate the situation

The survey shows that the relationship between cotton and competitive crop prices will largely affect planting decisions. At the same time, persistent inflation, global cotton demand issues, political and geopolitical issues, and persistently high production costs also have an important impact. Based on a long-term analysis of the price relationship between cotton and corn, the U.S. cotton acreage should be about 10.8 million acres. According to the current ICE cotton futures 77 cents/pound, corn futures 5 dollars/bushel, the current price than this year’s cotton expansion is favorable, but the 77 cents cotton futures price is indeed attractive to cotton farmers, the cotton region generally reflects that the cotton futures price is stable at more than 80 cents to increase planting intentions.

The survey shows that in 2024, the cotton planting area in the southeast of the United States is 2.15 million acres, a decrease of 8%, and the area of the states will not increase, and it is generally stable and has decreased. The South Central region is expected to be 1.65 million acres, with most states flat or slightly down, with only Tennessee seeing a small increase. The area in the Southwest was 6.165 million acres, down 0.8% year over year, with super drought in 2022 and extreme heat in 2023 still negatively impacting cotton production, but yields are expected to recover slightly. The western region, at 225,000 acres, was down nearly 6 percent from a year earlier, with irrigation water problems and cotton prices affecting planting.

For the second year in a row, cotton prices and other uncontrollable factors have led to respondents not being fully confident in future planting expectations, with some respondents even believing that the U.S. cotton acreage could drop to 9.8 million acres, while others believe that the acreage could increase to 10.5 million acres. Cotton Farmers Magazine’s acreage survey reflects market conditions from late November to early December 2023, when the U.S. cotton harvest was still underway. Based on previous years, the accuracy of the forecast is relatively high, providing the industry with useful food for thought ahead of the release of NCC intended area and USDA official data.

Source: China Cotton Information Center